Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 35.252166 38.250834 41.561376 45.522654 50.182166 55.552302 62.306155
2025-08-10 30.997735 34.942627 39.610706 45.665578 53.511531 63.651986 78.354922
2025-08-17 27.911253 32.153209 37.379914 44.503468 54.336237 68.111806 90.418305
2025-08-24 25.638170 29.991966 35.514896 43.324916 54.647715 71.597268 101.877699
2025-08-31 24.902107 29.644260 35.865254 45.057212 59.220508 82.349955 129.940688
2025-09-07 23.378027 28.104817 34.425418 44.007612 59.328368 85.781305 145.871370
2025-09-14 22.141599 26.844657 33.238886 43.155634 59.552941 89.395683 164.372757
2025-09-21 20.740982 25.266000 31.476033 41.233016 57.684969 88.589940 171.400078
2025-09-28 19.983358 24.524901 30.850447 40.997577 58.662081 93.658935 198.942985
2025-10-05 20.043484 24.919232 31.889004 43.494809 64.932350 112.094411 296.444472
2025-10-12 19.312645 24.139268 31.113886 42.913501 65.283065 116.946078 349.553680
2025-10-19 18.889988 23.779026 30.946663 43.336236 67.685646 128.017369 471.748107
2025-10-26 18.270829 23.216884 30.609559 43.767890 70.972146 145.872901 819.663203
2025-11-02 17.600726 22.555598 30.092667 43.877887 73.803354 165.763569 1908.590078
2025-11-09 16.771778 21.597574 29.012875 42.792876 73.598591 175.193921 4844.769440
2025-11-16 16.022025 20.715742 27.989575 41.690544 73.108910 183.608292 68832.780874
2025-11-23 15.835417 20.681589 28.353193 43.310305 79.991815 235.381389 NaN
2025-11-30 15.218949 19.942714 27.473720 42.329253 79.628837 249.386913 NaN
2025-12-07 14.682306 19.303354 26.722950 41.532096 79.623341 267.005481 NaN
2025-12-14 14.021001 18.440167 25.540776 39.730460 76.320160 257.827115 NaN
2025-12-21 13.656645 18.033391 25.126845 39.509574 77.742095 288.515673 NaN
2025-12-28 13.703045 18.281466 25.868521 41.849535 88.014137 445.684465 NaN
2026-01-04 13.327861 17.829495 25.333789 41.305408 88.542710 498.995851 NaN